A technocratic view of election forecasting : weighting citizens’ forecasts according to competence
| dc.contributor.author | Mongrain, Philippe | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2022-08-01T12:16:23Z | |
| dc.date.available | MONTHS_WITHHELD:24 | fr |
| dc.date.available | 2022-08-01T12:16:23Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2021-05-10 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/1866/26734 | |
| dc.publisher | Oxford University Press | fr |
| dc.subject | Aggregation | fr |
| dc.subject | Citizen forecasting | fr |
| dc.subject | Competence | fr |
| dc.subject | Political knowledge | fr |
| dc.subject | Voter expectations | fr |
| dc.subject | Wisdom of crowds | fr |
| dc.title | A technocratic view of election forecasting : weighting citizens’ forecasts according to competence | fr |
| dc.type | Article | fr |
| dc.contributor.affiliation | Université de Montréal. Faculté des arts et des sciences. Département de science politique | fr |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.1093/ijpor/edab010 | |
| dcterms.abstract | The present research note contributes to the (citizen) forecasting literature by leveraging vote expectation data from close to 3,200 district-level races in four countries (i.e., Canada, France, Germany, and Great Britain) in order to assess the relative merits of two competing views of the ‘wisdom of crowds’ hypothesis: the democratic view and the technocratic view. More precisely, the paper addresses the following question: Can we improve citizens’ forecasts of election outcomes by weighting voters’ expectations according to their level of expertise? | fr |
| dcterms.isPartOf | urn:ISSN:1471-6909 | fr |
| dcterms.language | eng | fr |
| UdeM.ReferenceFournieParDeposant | https://doi.org/10.1093/ijpor/edab010 | fr |
| UdeM.VersionRioxx | Version acceptée / Accepted Manuscript | fr |
| oaire.citationTitle | International journal of public opinion research | fr |
| oaire.citationVolume | 33 | fr |
| oaire.citationIssue | 3, Autumn 2021 | fr |
| oaire.citationStartPage | 713 | fr |
| oaire.citationEndPage | 723 | fr |
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