Abstract(s)
Historically, papers have been physically bound to the journal in which they were
published but in the electronic age papers are available individually, no longer tied to
their respective journals. Hence, papers now can be read and cited based on their own
merits, independently of the journal’s physical availability, reputation, or Impact Factor.
We compare the strength of the relationship between journals’ Impact Factors and the
actual citations received by their respective papers from 1902 to 2009. Throughout most
of the 20th century, papers’ citation rates were increasingly linked to their respective
journals’ Impact Factors. However, since 1990, the advent of the digital age, the
strength of the relation between Impact Factors and paper citations has been
decreasing. This decrease began sooner in physics, a field that was quicker to make the
transition into the electronic domain. Furthermore, since 1990, the proportion of highly
cited papers coming from highly cited journals has been decreasing, and accordingly,
the proportion of highly cited papers not coming from highly cited journals has also been
increasing. Should this pattern continue, it might bring an end to the use of the Impact
Factor as a way to evaluate the quality of journals, papers and researchers.