Electoral Volatility, Political Sophistication, Trust and Efficacy
A Study on Changes in Voter Preferences during the Belgian Regional Elections of 2009
Series/Report no.Acta Politica;Vol.47 No 1
In this article we investigate voter volatility and analyze the causes and motives of switching vote intentions. We test two main sets of variables linked to volatility in literature; political sophistication and ‘political (dis)satisfaction’. Results show that voters with low levels of political efficacy tend to switch more often, both within a campaign and between elections. In the analysis we differentiate between campaign volatility and inter-election volatility and by doing so show that the dynamics of a campaign have a profound impact on volatility. The campaign period is when the lowly sophisticated switch their vote intention. Those with higher levels of interest in politics have switched their intention before the campaign has started. The data for this analysis are from the three wave PartiRep Belgian Election Study (2009).
Dassonneville, Ruth. 2012. "Electoral Volatility, Political Sophistication, Trust and Efficacy. A Study on Changes in Voter Preferences during the Belgian Regional Elections of 2009". Acta Politica 47 (no 1) : 18-41.