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Predicting in an (increasingly) unpredictable system? : forty years of election forecasting in France
(Palgrave Macmillan, 2022-02-22)
In the last 40 years or so, scholars have proposed a vast array of models and approaches to predict election outcomes in a variety of democracies. Election forecasting has garnered increasing attention and has been the ...
Disloyalty and logics of fratricide in Civil War : executions of officers in republican Spain, 1936-19391
(Sage, 2018-05-14)
Violence within armed groups in civil wars is important and understudied. Linking literatures on civil war violence and military politics, this article asks when this fratricidal violence targets soldiers who try to defect, ...
More ‘Europe’, less Democracy? : European integration does not erode satisfaction with democracy
(Elsevier, 2021-01-31)
The process of European integration, through institutions such as the European Union, the Eurozone, or Schengen, implies a shift in political decision-making away from the national governments and towards international ...
A technocratic view of election forecasting : weighting citizens’ forecasts according to competence
(Oxford University Press, 2021-05-10)
The present research note contributes to the (citizen) forecasting literature by leveraging vote expectation data from close to 3,200 district-level races in four countries (i.e.,
Canada, France, Germany, and Great Britain) ...
Playing the synthesizer with Canadian data : adding polls to a structural forecasting model
(Elsevier, 2020-07-04)
Election forecasting has become a fixture of election campaigns in a number of democracies. Structural modeling, the major approach to forecasting election results, relies on ‘fundamental’ economic and political variables ...
The efficacy of ethnic stacking : military defection during uprisings in Africa
(Oxford University Press, 2019-05-10)
Does ethnic stacking in the armed forces help prevent military defection? Recent research, particularly in Africa and the Middle East, suggests so; by favoring in-groups, regimes can keep in-group soldiers loyal. In-group ...
Positive communication in a catastrophic crisis : the mixed effects of COVID-19 on the tone of Canadian governments’ media coverage
(Intellect, 2021-07-01)
Crisis management strategies have taken a new significance amidst the COVID-19 crisis. In
Canada, while the tone of media coverage of political leaders is usually stable over time, the
pandemic has provoked variation ...
State breakdown and Army-Splinter Rebellions
(SAGE, 2022-07-03)
In Afghanistan, Libya, Liberia and beyond, armed rebellions have begun when armies fell
apart. When does this occur? This paper conducts a large-N analysis of these army-splinter
rebellions, distinct from both non-military ...
The loyalty trap : regime ethnic exclusion, commitment problems, and civil war duration in Syria and beyond
(Taylor and Francis, 2018-10-30)
This article examines the impact of the ethnic exclusiveness of
regimes on commitment problems and hence on civil conflict
duration. It argues that members of privileged in-groups in
highly exclusive regimes can be ...
Did you see it coming? Explaining the accuracy of voter expectations for district and (sub)national election outcomes in multi-party systems
(Elsevier, 2021-03-19)
The expectations of voters regarding election outcomes appear to be mostly influenced by their own political preferences. This raises two important questions. First, once partisan predispositions have been accounted for, ...