Browsing Faculté des arts et des sciences – Département de science politique - Travaux et publications by Subject "Citizen forecasting"
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Did you see it coming? Explaining the accuracy of voter expectations for district and (sub)national election outcomes in multi-party systems
(Elsevier, 2021-03-19)The expectations of voters regarding election outcomes appear to be mostly influenced by their own political preferences. This raises two important questions. First, once partisan predispositions have been accounted for, how much do other variables ... -
A technocratic view of election forecasting : weighting citizens’ forecasts according to competence
(Oxford University Press, 2021-05-10)The present research note contributes to the (citizen) forecasting literature by leveraging vote expectation data from close to 3,200 district-level races in four countries (i.e., Canada, France, Germany, and Great Britain) in order to assess the ...