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Age, Period and Cohort effects in the Decline of Party Identification in Germany
An Analysis of a Two Decade Panel Study in Germany (1992-2009)
(2012-04-27)
Party identification traditionally is seen as an important linkage mechanism, connecting voters to the party system. Previous analyses have suggested that the level of party identity is in decline in Germany, and in this ...
Party Members as an Electoral Linking Mechanism
An Election Forecasting Model for Political Parties in Belgium, 1981-2010
(2014)
While party membership figures are clearly in decline in several Western countries, different interpretations have been offered on the likely consequences of this trend. Some authors stress that members have lost most of ...
Economic Policy Voting and Incumbency: Unemployment in Western Europe
(2013-06)
The economic voting literature has been dominated by the incumbency-oriented hypothesis, where voters reward or punish government at the ballot box according to economic performance. The alternative, policy-oriented ...
Election Forecasting under Opaque Conditions
A Model for Francophone Belgium, 1981-2010
(2012)
Election forecasting models assume retrospective economic voting and clear mechanisms of accountability. Previous research indeed indicates that incumbent political parties are being held accountable for the state of the ...