Browsing Faculté des arts et des sciences by Author "Mongrain, Philippe"
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10 Downing Street: who’s next? Seemingly unrelated regressions to forecast UK election results
Mongrain, Philippe (Taylor and Francis, 2019-02-01)In recent years, the British polling industry has encountered difficulties in its attempts to measure voting intentions in important popular consultations, notably the referendum on Scottish independence, the 2015 general election and the EU membership ... -
Citizens as election forecasters : the determinants and consequences of voters’ electoral expectations
Mongrain, Philippe (2022-10-26)Prédire est une activité du quotidien. Nous formons sans arrêt des jugements portant sur l’avenir. Cela n’a rien d’étonnant puisque la pensée prospective est une condition essentielle à la survie et à la créativité du genre humain. Prédire est aussi ... -
Did you see it coming? Explaining the accuracy of voter expectations for district and (sub)national election outcomes in multi-party systems
Mongrain, Philippe (Elsevier, 2021-03-19)The expectations of voters regarding election outcomes appear to be mostly influenced by their own political preferences. This raises two important questions. First, once partisan predispositions have been accounted for, how much do other variables ... -
Playing the synthesizer with Canadian data : adding polls to a structural forecasting model
Mongrain, Philippe; Nadeau, Richard; Jérôme, Bruno (Elsevier, 2020-07-04)Election forecasting has become a fixture of election campaigns in a number of democracies. Structural modeling, the major approach to forecasting election results, relies on ‘fundamental’ economic and political variables to predict the incumbent’s ... -
Predicting in an (increasingly) unpredictable system? : forty years of election forecasting in France
Mongrain, Philippe (Palgrave Macmillan, 2022-02-22)In the last 40 years or so, scholars have proposed a vast array of models and approaches to predict election outcomes in a variety of democracies. Election forecasting has garnered increasing attention and has been the subject of multiple symposia and ... -
La prévision des résultats électoraux : application au cas canadien
Mongrain, Philippe (2017-09-27)Au cours des années 1970 et 1980, quelques politologues se sont lancés dans la conception de formules prévisionnelles basées sur des indicateurs politico-économiques afin d’anticiper les résultats de courses électorales. Cette discipline s’est ... -
A technocratic view of election forecasting : weighting citizens’ forecasts according to competence
Mongrain, Philippe (Oxford University Press, 2021-05-10)The present research note contributes to the (citizen) forecasting literature by leveraging vote expectation data from close to 3,200 district-level races in four countries (i.e., Canada, France, Germany, and Great Britain) in order to assess the ...