Now showing items 1-10 of 15
Party Members as an Electoral Linking Mechanism
An Election Forecasting Model for Political Parties in Belgium, 1981-2010
While party membership figures are clearly in decline in several Western countries, different interpretations have been offered on the likely consequences of this trend. Some authors stress that members have lost most of ...
Punishing Local Incumbents for the Local Economy
Economic Voting in the 2012 Belgian Municipal Elections
After decennia of research on economic voting, it is now established that the state of the economy affects voting behaviour. Nevertheless, this conclusion is the result of a focus on predominantly national-level economies ...
A Comparative Investigation into The Effects of Party-System Variables on Party Switching using Individual-Level Data
Previous comparative electoral studies using aggregate data indicate the importance of party-system variables, such as polarization and the number of parties, with regard to the level of volatility between two elections. ...
Political Sophistication and Vote Intention Switching
The Timing of Electoral Volatility in the 2009 German Election Campaign
This article investigates the link between political sophistication and electoral volatility. Showing that there is disagreement in the literature on whether switching party preferences is related to low or high levels of ...
Election Forecasting under Opaque Conditions
A Model for Francophone Belgium, 1981-2010
Election forecasting models assume retrospective economic voting and clear mechanisms of accountability. Previous research indeed indicates that incumbent political parties are being held accountable for the state of the ...
The Effects of Civic Education on Political Knowledge
A Two Year Panel Survey among Belgian Adolescents
Traditionally political knowledge was regarded as an important potential outcome for civic education efforts. Most of the currently available research, however, tends to focus on non-cognitive goals, despite the fact that ...
Age, Period and Cohort effects in the Decline of Party Identification in Germany
An Analysis of a Two Decade Panel Study in Germany (1992-2009)
Party identification traditionally is seen as an important linkage mechanism, connecting voters to the party system. Previous analyses have suggested that the level of party identity is in decline in Germany, and in this ...
Partisan Dealignment in Germany: A rejoinder to Russell Dalton
The work of Russell Dalton has undoubtedly played a seminal role in the study of the relation between political sophistication and partisan dealignment. We furthermore acknowledge the presence of a consensus on the occurrence ...
Voters and Candidates of the Future
The Intention for Electoral Participation among Adolescents in 22 European countries
Within the literature there is a growing concern about lower voter turnout rates among young age cohorts. In this article we investigate the reported willingness to vote among 72,466 14-year old adolescents from 22 European ...
Transfert de voix, flux électoraux et électeurs mobiles
Ruth Dassonneville et Pierre Baudewyns révèlent que, derrière les pourcentages des résultats électoraux, se cachent bien des mouvements et transferts d’électeurs. Ils se penchent sur la « volatilité nette », c’est-à-dire ...