Now showing items 1-10 of 15
Election Forecasting under Opaque Conditions
A Model for Francophone Belgium, 1981-2010
Election forecasting models assume retrospective economic voting and clear mechanisms of accountability. Previous research indeed indicates that incumbent political parties are being held accountable for the state of the ...
Transfert de voix, flux électoraux et électeurs mobiles
Ruth Dassonneville et Pierre Baudewyns révèlent que, derrière les pourcentages des résultats électoraux, se cachent bien des mouvements et transferts d’électeurs. Ils se penchent sur la « volatilité nette », c’est-à-dire ...
Partisan Dealignment in Germany: A rejoinder to Russell Dalton
The work of Russell Dalton has undoubtedly played a seminal role in the study of the relation between political sophistication and partisan dealignment. We furthermore acknowledge the presence of a consensus on the occurrence ...
The Relation Between Civic Education and Political Attitudes and Behavior
A Two-Year Panel Study Among Belgian Late Adolescents
It is generally assumed that civic education efforts will have a positive effect on the political attitudes and behaviors of adolescents and young adults. There is less agreement, however, on the most effective forms of ...
The Effects of Civic Education on Political Knowledge
A Two Year Panel Survey among Belgian Adolescents
Traditionally political knowledge was regarded as an important potential outcome for civic education efforts. Most of the currently available research, however, tends to focus on non-cognitive goals, despite the fact that ...
A Comparative Investigation into The Effects of Party-System Variables on Party Switching using Individual-Level Data
Previous comparative electoral studies using aggregate data indicate the importance of party-system variables, such as polarization and the number of parties, with regard to the level of volatility between two elections. ...
Voters and Candidates of the Future
The Intention for Electoral Participation among Adolescents in 22 European countries
Within the literature there is a growing concern about lower voter turnout rates among young age cohorts. In this article we investigate the reported willingness to vote among 72,466 14-year old adolescents from 22 European ...
The economic voter and economic crisis
Theories of economic voting have a long tradition in political science and continue to inspire a large group of scholars. Classical economic voting theory assumes a reward-and-punishment mechanism (Key, 1966). This mechanism ...
Economic Policy Voting and Incumbency: Unemployment in Western Europe
The economic voting literature has been dominated by the incumbency-oriented hypothesis, where voters reward or punish government at the ballot box according to economic performance. The alternative, policy-oriented ...
Party Members as an Electoral Linking Mechanism
An Election Forecasting Model for Political Parties in Belgium, 1981-2010
While party membership figures are clearly in decline in several Western countries, different interpretations have been offered on the likely consequences of this trend. Some authors stress that members have lost most of ...