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Le grand paradoxe de la famine temporelle
(Éditions liber, 2019)
Pandémie, mort de la mort et philosophie des Lumières
(Éditions liber, 2020-03-18)
Le devenir robot de l’humain
(Éditions liber, 2019)
State breakdown and Army-Splinter Rebellions
(SAGE, 2022-07-03)
In Afghanistan, Libya, Liberia and beyond, armed rebellions have begun when armies fell
apart. When does this occur? This paper conducts a large-N analysis of these army-splinter
rebellions, distinct from both non-military ...
The loyalty trap : regime ethnic exclusion, commitment problems, and civil war duration in Syria and beyond
(Taylor and Francis, 2018-10-30)
This article examines the impact of the ethnic exclusiveness of
regimes on commitment problems and hence on civil conflict
duration. It argues that members of privileged in-groups in
highly exclusive regimes can be ...
A technocratic view of election forecasting : weighting citizens’ forecasts according to competence
(Oxford University Press, 2021-05-10)
The present research note contributes to the (citizen) forecasting literature by leveraging vote expectation data from close to 3,200 district-level races in four countries (i.e.,
Canada, France, Germany, and Great Britain) ...
More ‘Europe’, less Democracy? : European integration does not erode satisfaction with democracy
(Elsevier, 2021-01-31)
The process of European integration, through institutions such as the European Union, the Eurozone, or Schengen, implies a shift in political decision-making away from the national governments and towards international ...
Disloyalty and logics of fratricide in Civil War : executions of officers in republican Spain, 1936-19391
(Sage, 2018-05-14)
Violence within armed groups in civil wars is important and understudied. Linking literatures on civil war violence and military politics, this article asks when this fratricidal violence targets soldiers who try to defect, ...
Predicting in an (increasingly) unpredictable system? : forty years of election forecasting in France
(Palgrave Macmillan, 2022-02-22)
In the last 40 years or so, scholars have proposed a vast array of models and approaches to predict election outcomes in a variety of democracies. Election forecasting has garnered increasing attention and has been the ...
Playing the synthesizer with Canadian data : adding polls to a structural forecasting model
(Elsevier, 2020-07-04)
Election forecasting has become a fixture of election campaigns in a number of democracies. Structural modeling, the major approach to forecasting election results, relies on ‘fundamental’ economic and political variables ...