The Ghost in the Machine: Inferring Machine-Based Strategies from Observed Behavior
Article [Version of Record]
Is part of
Cahier de recherche ; no. 2004-11.Publisher(s)
Université de Montréal. Département de sciences économiques.Affiliation
Keywords
- strategy inference
- Bayesian methods
- experimental economics
- Prisoner's Dilemma
- repeated games
- [JEL:C11] Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - Bayesian Analysis
- [JEL:C15] Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - Statistical Simulation Methods; Monte Carlo Methods; Bootstrap Methods
- [JEL:C72] Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - Noncooperative Games
- [JEL:C73] Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games; Repeated Games
- [JEL:C92] Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - Design of Experiments - Laboratory, Group Behavior
- [JEL:C11] Mathématiques et méthodes quantitatives - Économétrie et méthodes statistiques; généralités - Analyse bayésienne
- [JEL:C15] Mathématiques et méthodes quantitatives - Économétrie et méthodes statistiques; généralités - Méthodes de simulation statistique: la méthode Monte Carlo
- [JEL:C72] Mathématiques et méthodes quantitatives - Théorie des jeux et négociation - Jeux non-coopératifs
- [JEL:C73] Mathématiques et méthodes quantitatives - Théorie des jeux et négociation - Jeux stochastiques et dynamiques
- [JEL:C92] Mathématiques et méthodes quantitatives - Organisation des expériences - Laboratoire et comportement de groupe
Abstract(s)
We introduce a procedure to infer the repeated-game strategies that generate actions in experimental choice data. We apply the technique to set of experiments where human subjects play a repeated Prisoner's Dilemma. The technique suggests that two types of strategies underly the data.
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